Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Subsurface Waters Temps
FORECAST UPDATE: Swell peaks overnight, from roughly midnight to 8am, then tapers gradually through the day. SST Anomaly Projections
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. The WNW groundswell will ease as well, while more but shorter period energy shows for the workweek. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. Long Range Forecast Mostly the same story as of late. Surface Analysis
It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. NW wind 5 to 10 kt. The cut-off low mentioned above will pinch off from the jetstream by Monday morning and spin around SoCal for a few days. The Pacific-Ocean Weather Map below shows the weather forecast for the next 12 days. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. Jetstream
Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building on the equator west to 138W and from there to the dateline and beyond. but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. Swell fading on Fri (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. Wind waves 2 ft or less. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. TUE NIGHT Rain. Also on Mon PM (2/22) a short lived tiny fetch of north winds produced 20 ft seas 650 nmiles north of Hawaii at 35.5N 159W aimed south. May is one of the most active times of year for Southern Hemisphere swells, and this week is showing us just that. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST
Forecast (2/24) - Temps are to fall to -1.35 degs in May only to rise some to -1.15 degs in the July and holding beyond. The 30 day average was falling some at +9.31 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper with pockets of 28 degs temps on the surface. in the late morning and afternoon. NW ground swell increases Monday with a mix of wind swell, lasting for a couple days. Also called 'Background' swell. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.15 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer. This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds to deal with. That jet-bend on this model for the 8th-9th of this month, falls in an 8- to 9-day swell window for SoCal; hence, swell ETA by the 17th. 1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. Coastal Waters Forecast. Also called 'Background' swell. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Level up to a Premium Membership to unlock 16-day forecasts and other useful forecasting tools. If these combine with south swells then Malibu and Trestles will fire whereas places such as Rincon require a more northerly swell. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 12 ft at A tiny and weak gale developed over the North Dateline region on Sun AM (2/20) producing a short lived fetch of 45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians with 24 ft seas at 46N 169.25W aimed east. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. The south swell will slowly ease Sunday the 8th and into the workweek. Wind Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady filling the entire subsurface equatorial Pacific. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. The East Shore was thigh high and chopped with moderate east trades. WED NIGHT But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. TONIGHT A summertime pattern looks to be setting up. Swell continues Thurs (5/4) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). As for rain: Since this low lacks a more predictable jetstream guidance, one has to choose from the widely disparate models to play weather-roulette for timing and amounts. Moderate NW ground swell is due Thursday into Friday. But then reconsolidating and poised to push weakly over California. In the evening south winds built to 45 kts over a small area lifting fast north with seas 37 ft at 40.75S 162W aimed north. Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. Today: Sunny with isolated showers. N wind 15 to 20 kt. I wish I could show you, when you are lonely or in darkness, the astonishing light of your own Being! TONIGHT West facing breaks were mostly waist high. description. Chance of showers. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Summer - Chest to head high. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft near at 40N 173E. Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. Level up to Premium to unlock this and other useful features: Long-range forecasts are available to DeepSwell Premium members. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Pacific-Ocean region. But we also have some very late season WNW groundswell mixing in during the same timeframe, and wintertime spots could get pretty fun. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42.5N 151.25W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. You are the reason this report exists. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date. In the evening 40 kt northwest winds are to be building off the Pacific Northwest with 27 ft seas at 43.5N 137.75.5W aimed east. Forecast (4/30) - Temps are slowly climbing above neutral (0.2 degs today) and are forecast rising to +1.49 degs in July and +2.35 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 100W. 5 nm of Brookings southward, NW wind 15 to 25 kt. MJO/ENSO Discussion
for Week of Monday 2/21 thru Sun 2/27, Solid Swell Hitting Hawaii
TUE NIGHT Beyond 72 hours the models are teasing about a tiny gale developing on Sun AM (2/27) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska with 40 kt west winds over a small area and 29 ft seas at 41.5N 147W aimed east. La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East
Swell should be angled from around 305-315 with periods 14 seconds from the ground swell and 8-10 seconds from wind swell. Long Range Forecast Activity in the South and North Pacific look to die down a lot compared to our action-packed week of swell. Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. In the evening northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 39.75N 168E approaching the dateline. Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The compact winds around the center may temper the size for other locations around the Pacific, but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. The morning may have a little window that could be worth a look. See it Here
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Summer - Head high or better. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. Within 5 nm of Satellite Imagery
Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.711 degs in May rising to +1.149 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Oct then fading from there. This model suggests a transition to El Nino. On Sat AM (4/29) 45 kt northwest winds were building well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 25 ft at 44N 143W aimed southeast. Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. W wind 5 kt. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. Another gale is forecast developing in the deep South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/1) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas building. 100% advert-free browsing experience on any device, Unlimited advert-free HD webcam streaming, Long-range forecast experience without interuptions. By Nathan Cool. Eglise Notre Dame. Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5-10 cms over the entirety of it's width with a pocket of +10 cms in the west and a pocket of +10-20 cms in the east extending north of Panama and south to Chile. Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks smaller, about waist high everywhere. Swell NW The 7 day forecast has moderate east anomalies holding over the bulk of the KWGA to east of 150E till 5/3 then pushing east with modest west anomalies developing filling most of the KWGA by 5/3 and then getting strong over the for West Pacific on 5/5 wand holding through the last day of the model run on 5/7. DeepSwell offers free surf reports and long-range forecasts including swell, tide, wind and weather reports updated multiple times daily. Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022. waves 2 ft or less. 7 to 8 ft at 9 seconds. Tiny North Dateline Gale
Water temperatures are a warm 25 to 27C or 77 to 81F year-round. 45154 /45520. Still lots of swell over the weekend, but morning conditions are trending less favorably. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that.
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